News

The commercial real estate industry is now going into the third consecutive year of a looming wall of maturities. We first anticipated a that wall to hit in 2024, driven by a combination of 10-year, fixed-rate loans that were originated in 2014;, the first significant year of loan originations post GFC; , and two- and three-year bridge loans that were originated in 2021 and 2022 to finance value-add investments, primarily in multifamily.

While much has been written recently about the Big Beautiful Bill and its impact on the real estate industry, far less has been said about the Genius Act—a major legislative development coming out of Washington, D.C. that could have significant effects on the capital markets and, by extension, the commercial real estate (CRE) sector.

Signed into law in July 2025, the Genius Act establishes a federal regulatory framework for payment stablecoins in the U.S.

As we pass the halfway mark of 2025, institutional equity is showing renewed interest, though caution and diligence remain central to decision-making. After several years of low transaction volume, both LPs and co-GPs are prepared to deploy capital when the right opportunities align with the right partners.

This update summarizes insights gathered from recent conversations with dozens of capital providers.

LP Capital Trends

LPs are currently deploying capital in check sizes ranging from $10 million to $100 million.

In previous cycles, commercial real estate (CRE) transaction volume typically declined due to liquidity constraints or economic recessions. However, that’s not the case today—liquidity remains ample, and the economy is relatively stable. So, what’s causing the current slowdown in CRE transactions?

I believe there are three primary factors:

• Unrealistic Owner Expectations
Many CRE owners still hold onto the belief that interest rates will return to 2022 levels,

As we near the end of the first quarter, it’s been quite an eventful start to the year on every level of the economy and the commercial real estate sector.

On the national and international level the unexpectedly frantic pace of the Trump administration’s changes are having an immediate impact on the CRE sector. DOGE and its government workforce reduction efforts have impacted both the residential and commercial office markets.

After 24 hours of meetings at the Western States CREFC Conference with 20+ lenders ranging from a mid-western private debt fund to the likes of global investment banks such as JPM Investment Management, one major theme rang consistent — CRE lending is doing Risk On!

After nearly two years of defensive retrenching initiated by the Fed’s historically swift increase of the Fed funds rate, the CRE lending sector has become leaner and better capitalized as more capital was raised to take advantage of the risk adjusted returns that floating rate CRE lending is offering today;